The Coming GOP Logjam

Source: The Moderate Logjam Problem | commentary

Even though Jonathan Tobin quite rightly disavows calling any of the candidates moderate (they are not, though Graham, Kasich, and Christie get closest,) he makes the single most cogent point I’ve heard yet about the GOP primary:

The math is unavoidable. If Christie is competing with Rubio on an even playing field after New Hampshire and Bush is still in denial about his failed candidacy and hoping to revive it in Florida, none of them are going to be able to stop either Trump or Cruz.

That means one of two things. Either Trump gets the nom because his opponents have hopelessly split the competition, or there is a brokered convention where the GOP pulls everyone together in a desperate Hail Mary last-stand to stop Trump, with everyone throwing their support behind the GOP runner polling best with the general electorate.

Pulling off the latter scenario in a smoky room full of egos and power brokers is going to be hard enough. This is not 1952. Appeals for party unity fall on deaf ears in a roomful of megalomaniacs who are so close to the Big Chair in the Oval Office that they can smell the fine Corinthian leather. It can be even tougher to pull off on the floor where the battle is not among eight candidates and their organizations, but with every single delegate whose vote could make a difference. And then watch the deal machine go into motion.

Even if that feat of political legerdemain comes off, The Donald will likely not go gently. Bet on an independent campaign that will split the vote on the right just enough to allow a second Clinton to slide into the White House, possibly even with Bernie Sanders as VP.

Hillary and her team have to know that if they can avoid any egregious mistakes between now and the Republican National Convention, they are 90% of the way home. Indeed, I would not be surprised if the deal to solidify unity for the Dems wasn’t already sealed. Because at this point, the course of the election seems painfully clear.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

Create a free website or blog at

Up ↑

The Golden West Review

A Californian Perspective on History, Arts, Land, Literature, and Politics

A Bucket and a Pen

In Search of Life after the Career

coffeesteffi ♡

coffee, art & my brewed thoughts

Sea Scout Ship 9201

Channel Islands Harbor • Ventura County Council, BSA

Troop 234, Boy Scouts of America

Port Hueneme/Channel Islands Harbor, CA

Dirty Sci-Fi Buddha

Musings and books from a grunty overthinker

The Chinafornia Wolf

Gratefully Chronicling a Remarkable Journey

The Thousand Books Project

Reading a Meaningful Life

Cafe Book Bean

Talk Books. Drink Coffee.

Silicon Hutong

Addressing China as it is, not as we want it to be

Maura Elizabeth Cunningham

Historian and Writer

Runningwinegirl's Blog

Colorado Girl Sharing Insights on Wine, Public Relations and Life's Adventures

ARLIN REPORT...................walking this path together


Blue-eyed Ronin

A contrarian who enjoys challenging existing illusions, one truth at a time.


People and Trends

Promoting fair and accurate coverage of Israel

Who Said What

Barton's Blog

To the clouds and beyond...

Coffee Shop Rabbi

Basic Judaism spoken here.

Cami Ryan

Science, society, and life

Pacific Paratrooper

This site is Pacific War era information

______Assessing China / The TEA Collaborative______

Tech, Energy & Ambitions: Assessments at the Intersection of Technology, Investment and Policy

Cliche of Logic

This is the beginning of my writing.

An Ordinary Website

of interest to few.

Der Bananenplanet

Alternatives Informationsmedium

Corey Robin

Author of "The Reactionary Mind: Conservatism from Edmund Burke to Sarah Palin" and "The Enigma of Clarence Thomas"

Ragan Communications

The Center Must Hold

The China Story

The Center Must Hold

Yale E360

The Center Must Hold

Xindanwei | 新单位

The Center Must Hold

The Center Must Hold


Freelancing in the Digital Age

FriendFeed Blog

The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold

Blog Daily Listings RSS

The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold

The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold

WebMD Health

The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold

Village Voice

The Center Must Hold

Uploads from The U.S. Army

The Center Must Hold


Latest news and trends about tech in China

The Center Must Hold


The Center Must Hold

The Center Must Hold

%d bloggers like this: